When I made the charts below over the weekend, I had thought I made a mistake regarding the final top in the SPX being 7/20 and changed it to 7/24 based on the astro/cycle reading. As it turns out, it looks as though 7/20 was that top (irregular) and we are not making that rare double irregular top I used to see in the 1980’s.
The Dow Industrials are breaking down below the rising wedge and if it closes below (likely) we should begin to see waterfall action soon. The Industrials and Transports failed to make new highs with the SPX and NASDAQ this past week, setting up a bearish inter market divergence.
The downside looks like we may hit as low as SPX 2400/01 by Wednesday as there are many supporting factors to suggest such a move. However, I’m also hedging myself with another target of 2412/13 and then even as high as 2424/25.
GDX looks like it is making a Head and Shoulders bottom with a target of the 24.25 area by August 11. Helio-centric Mercury moves into Sagittarius on July 26 into August 7 and this is normally a good time to be long the mining sector.
August 11 is close to when Mercury goes stationary/retrograde, usually a turning point in the precious metals complex. My guess is we see an important low between 7/26 and 7/28 in the gold complex. Bearish COT data supports an extremely bullish position on the pull back.
Astro-wise we have Mercury trine Uranus today (an exhausting top), Venus opposite Saturn (a reversal signature) along with the new moon in Leo (topping/reversing). July 26 sees the Sun conjunct Mars, then August 7, the lunar eclipse on the full moon. Those days should see the final C wave rally that should lift all boats.
Watch for the greed-o-meter to shift higher after the expected pull back this week. Hardly anybody is expecting a 9% decline in August, but that is exactly what I’m seeing.
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