Monday, July 24, 2017

SPX, GDX: Big Moves Ahead

When I made the charts below over the weekend, I had thought I made a mistake regarding the final top in the SPX being 7/20 and changed it to 7/24 based on the astro/cycle reading.  As it turns out, it looks as though 7/20 was that top (irregular) and we are not making that rare double irregular top I used to see in the 1980’s.

The Dow Industrials are breaking down below the rising wedge and if it closes below (likely) we should begin to see waterfall action soon. The Industrials and Transports failed to make new highs with the SPX and NASDAQ this past week, setting up a bearish inter market divergence.

The downside looks like we may hit as low as SPX 2400/01 by Wednesday as there are many supporting factors to suggest such a move.  However, I’m also hedging myself with another target of 2412/13 and then even as high as 2424/25.

GDX looks like it is making a Head and Shoulders bottom with a target of the 24.25 area by August 11. Helio-centric Mercury moves into Sagittarius on July 26 into August 7 and this is normally a good time to be long the mining sector. 

August 11 is close to when Mercury goes stationary/retrograde, usually a turning point in the precious metals complex. My guess is we see an important low between 7/26 and 7/28 in the gold complex. Bearish COT data supports an extremely bullish position on the pull back.

Astro-wise we have Mercury trine Uranus today (an exhausting top), Venus opposite Saturn (a reversal signature) along with the new moon in Leo (topping/reversing).  July 26 sees the Sun conjunct Mars, then August 7, the lunar eclipse on the full moon.  Those days should see the final C wave rally that should lift all boats.

Watch for the greed-o-meter to shift higher after the expected pull back this week. Hardly anybody is expecting a 9% decline in August, but that is exactly what I’m seeing.

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Friday, July 21, 2017

Fast 3% Drop Coming! July 21, 2017 PM

Warning: fast 3% drop coming on the SPX into Tuesday (2477/78 to 2399/2400).  Charts coming with exact e-wave degree, cycles, charting technique.  We are heavy buyers of July 26 SPY puts and UVXY.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

July 20 AM Update

The stock market looks as though it has topped today. All cycles and market charting techniques suggest SPX 2393 by July 25. One more rally into August 8 to new highs and then down into Sept 1.

GDX has a top due on August 11/14 and down into August 31/Sept 1 based on Mercury Rx.

Charts coming.

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

7/19/17 PM Update

The SPX  looks as though it is making an irregular top on Thursday.  A large down day Friday with follow through on Monday is in the cards.  Support Monday 2393/94

July 19, 2017 Update

Very unusual for the hourly B Band to constrict the way it did and go up instead of down.  This is still basically a 'b' wave which turns into a 'y' wave.  Two trines are present: yesterday's Venus tri Jupiter (late in the day, so we see it today), a very positive trine and the next, Mercury trine Saturn later today before the market closes.
The larger 3 week low is due Thursday (tomorrow) and we have another trine on Monday Mercury trine Uranus), which is also a delta top with Venus opposite Saturn. Three weeks ago, Thursday was down big.  Tomorrow also sees Sun sq. Uranus (something unexpected) as the Sun joins Mars in this position.
My best guess is we see Thursday down big and Friday into Monday sees a huge rally.  There is no way we have seen the 8 TD low yet (due Friday +/- 2 TD's) last running 7 TD's.
Mars also enters Leo on the 20th with the moon in Gemini all day (a mutable sign).  The moon tends to make stock market lows when in Gemini and Sagittarius.
Friday was a top and today is a top three days later, next is the expected top on Monday.  I call these 4 TD moves little skippers as they run 3 TD's instead of 4.  Monday is also the three week top from July 3 (which was a 16 TD top). This makes 14 TD's for the 16 TD cycle top with an 8 and 6.
On an e-wave basis the last C wave up came from around 2441 SPX so that could easily get taken out by Thursday.
I'm waiting for the trine that comes later today to show itself before committing anything to the short side via puts or volatility etf's.
Standing aside on GDX awaiting a pull back into Thursday's 8 TD low.  GDX's 2 TD rally looks to be Thursday/Monday.  The trend is still up, but a pull back is needed here.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Market Forecast: OPEX Week July 2017

I have SPX falling to 2444/45 Wednesday and GDX down to near 21.90/.93.  By Friday SPX should be tagging 2479 +/- and GDX to near 22.99/23.00. Past cycles and VOL cycle suggest an up open tomorrow that will be sold.  By 11:00 EDT we should see a sell-off to 2444/45 SPX.  Wisdom dictates late day buying (3:00) of XIV on the secondary low.  I like VXX or UVXY on the open Wednesday.  A 6% gain in UVXY is possible tomorrow into late in the day on the secondary low.
Volatility players should look to buy XIV on the expected dip Wednesday.  It is making a new high today, suggesting higher prices ahead for stocks.  All in all, I expect XIV to net about 5% from Wed into Monday where we have Mercury trine Uranus.  Expect a mild drop next week Monday into Wednesday.  Today has Venus trine Jupiter after the close confirming topping action Wednesday.

The 7 Week low came on July 11 and that cycle does not top until the lunar eclipse of August 7, the next 16 TD top (targeting 2495).  From Aug 7 to August 31 is exactly 18 TD's same as the Oct 2014 sell-off and the March 1 to 27 sell-off for wave X.  We are still in Wave Y. I have Wave Z pegged for 2263.
Next week sees the Mars/Sun conjunction and these always presage about a 10% drop within 6 weeks of the exact aspect (July 26).  Mars aspects are suggesting some nasty things ahead, some of which may include some war tension especially in and around the Solar Eclipse of August 21 into August 31. Trump's Mars figures strongly in all this. Astro hot spots include Iran and North Korea.
The ten week low occurred on June 29 and was 53 TD's.  August 31 (moon in Sagittarius same as July 6) is exactly 44 TD's (9 weeks), the minimum a ten week low can occur. The upcoming low is a 10/20/40/80 week low, also known as the 18 month cycle. A powerful XYZ signature where Z takes out the X wave low hard is very bullish suggesting new highs in October, where many longer term cycles top (including the 10 year and 88 year cycles). The formation is known as a broadening top.
Wave Z of 2 in 2011 was about 20%, and Z of Wave 4 should be about the same into late 2018.  The final 5th wave should top sometime around early 2020 (same as early 2000) and drop hard into 2022 where the 90 year cycle low from 1932 is expected.  Benner has a cycle top due in 2018 +/- 2 years and a cycle low due in 2021 plus or minus 2 years.  I expect around 3250 for the final 5th wave top.

 A 4th turning 80/84 year cycle crisis war (last seen in late 1941 and before that late 1860) is due around the expected October 2022 low (gold has a 7 year low due then too from late 2016).

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Wednesday, July 5, 2017

July 5 Update 10:05 AM EDT

The stock market looks as though it wants to turn over to the down side today into Thursday.  Today is TD 56 of the ten week cycle low (runs 50 TD +/- 6.5) and a Bradley turn.  We could see a slightly lower low than last week or even around 2405 as a W bottom..