Monday, December 12, 2016

Stock Market Top? Sucker's Play



The current rally from November 4 to December 12 (if indeed it was the top) was Minuette Wave Y of Minute Y.  Minute Wave Y (of Minor Wave B) was a wxy inverted, irregular and strong bearish flat.  Elliott called these B waves or irregular tops.  The Trump rally is basically a “sucker’s play”. The internals of this rally are sick and very selective; the McClellan Summation Index is miles away from confirming it; the Dow Jones Industrials has far exceeded the SPX, which has far exceeded the NASDAQ creating a case of an inter-market bearish divergence. We also have a huge On-Balance-Volume divergence.

A move down into the mid 1900’s SPX by February/March 2017 (as noted on the chart below) is my expectation.  This would fit a Minor Wave B .618 retracement of Minor Wave A (January 19-July 14) fairly matching the November 2015 – January 2016 drop (due to the raising of rates).

I expect a down-up-down year for 2017, which should end Primary Wave 4. If Primary Wave 4 ends in late 2017 (like I’m thinking), then, the final top should occur somewhere around early 2019. The shallow decline of early November (which should have seen a deep 40 week low) followed by the strong Trump Rally, probably created a fortunate, unexpected delay in the finality of this upcoming, final fifth wave.

Millennial Wave (III?) “since c.a. 1000 C.E.” Topping, early 2019?
Grand Super Cycle Wave (V) “since c.a. 1776”; Topping, early 2019?
Super Cycle Wave V “since 1942”, Topping, early 2019?
Cycle Wave 5 “since March 2009”, Topping, early 2019?
Primary Wave 4 “since late 2014”, Rolling over into late 2017?
Intermediate Wave Y “since February 11, 2016”, Topping August 2017?
Minor Wave  B “since July 14, 2016”, Rolling over into March 2017?
Minute Wave Y “since September 12, 2016”, Topped December 12, 2016?
Minuette Wave Y “since November 4, 2016”, Topped December 12, 2016?


It doesn’t matter who is in power, the crash is coming!  The charts I’ve posted are perfect Elliott Wave counts. Are you ready?

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Thursday, December 8, 2016

The Stock Market Top is Today!



We are in the area of the 17 week cycle top (which is due today, mid day December 8th).  A 14%+ drop looks likely into February/March.  A strong 19%+ rally into late July and then a huge drop into the fall (-31%+), projects a down, up, down market for the year finishing Primary Wave 4. 


The Coming Primary Wave 5 finishes Cycle Wave 5 since March 2009, Super Cycle Wave 5 since April 1942 and Grand Super Cycle Wave 5 since about 1776. The expected crash from late 2018/early 2019 into 2020/21 could easily drop the stock market 89% (the same as 1929/32).


The implied social differences between 90 year ago and today are staggering. The effects of a huge economic implosion (ala 1929/32) on today’s society will be much more exaggerated this time. Also, increasing in this same cycle, are the drum beats of war (80-year cycle) and a 240-250 year cycle of social revolution (American/French Revolutions).


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Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Stock Market Topping, Gold Looks Lower



The stock market looks like it is making a distribution top into the FED meeting.  We may see a small pull back into late week and then higher prices into the 14th.  We could see a sharp drop into the 5 week cycle low due around the 19th of December.  Overall, the market should be lower into March/April 2017 (Minor Wave Wave X of Intermediate Wave Z of Primary Wave 4) next year due to a FED rate hike. 


I believe from top to bottom, 14% could be taken out of the market into the Spring. The recent pattern begs for a summer top and more selling into the fall of 2017 that could be a lot worse than the one in the spring. The final wave up before the BIG CRASH should take most or all of 2018 to accomplish. A lot of experts believe the crash will come sooner than that, but the wave count begs to differ (a word to the wise: start taking advantage of your financial and prepping affairs before this coming market crash hits you and your family like a ton of bricks, because it will catch the majority of Americans by complete surprise).


Gold stocks still have room to fall further.  The pattern is bearish. A move down to GDX 16.50/17.00 could happen after the FED meeting along with the stock market down to 2150 SPX or so.



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