Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Oct 17, 2017

The big play right now looks to be GDX long: NUGT and GDX calls for leverage.  GDX could hit 24.69 +/- by early Thursday.

The SPX continues its topping action, which may continue into Wednesday.  A minor low is on our radar for Oct 23. Resistance is near 2560.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Oct 16, 2017

The magic number for me would be SPX 2560/61 today in the first hour of trading.  IF that does not happen, then a slightly different scenario would be in play than previously thought (a high and low in the same day). The previous (x) wave ran 2 TD's (Oct 5-9) so IF today is wave (y), then (z) could run 2 TD's also, which points to a Wednesday low.


Wave (x) ran from 2552 down to 2541.  Normally, wave (z's) are  c's: hard waves down.  An xyz scenario right here going down into Wed would imply higher prices directly ahead.  IF we do the previously thought of scenario (hi/lo) in same day, the resulting scenario would imply a choppy move move to new highs by the end of next week.

GDX could move a little higher on open today, but my thinking suggests a pull back today followed by a big move up on Wednesday.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Oct 15, 2017

SPX: Monday is TD 15 from the 24 TD (5 week) low (August 25) and should be both a top and bottom.  Resistance is near 2560/61 and support near 2536/37.

The week ahead should be choppy going into OPEX Friday (Sun opposite Uranus on the new moon Oct 19).  There is a Bradley turn Monday and around Friday/Monday next.  Next week should be range bound and indecisive. A possible important top near 2567 may be due on the 26th (8 TD top/Sun conj. Jupiter).  A minor low is due Monday the 23rd.
GDX: GDX is in TD 9 off the recent low and is due a pull back Monday to around the 23.40/50 area.  Mercury conj Jupiter on the 18th is bullish for GDX with a target into the 24.40's.
The two best option trades this week, IMO, will be shorting the SPX 2560/61 (SPY Oct 18 puts strike 255.00 target 253.20) Monday and buying GDX long (Oct 20 calls 23.50 strike target 24.40/.50) from late Monday into Wednesday.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Oct 12, 2017

The SPX made an xyz bull flag today suggesting higher prices into Monday, which should also be a low.  I expect 2560 by Monday then a quick test of 2536 the same day to cover the recent gap up.  Monday is TD 15 off of a 24 TD cycle low.  We had similar moves in early June and again in late July.  All shorts should cover at 2536 and go long as another new high should result.
All momentum indicators are rolling over suggesting after the next high after Monday we should see some downward selling. Friday could gap up.
GDX should see some selling early Friday followed by strength.

Friday, October 6, 2017

Oct 6, 2017

I'm giving an IT sell signal on the SPX and NASDAQ COMP and NDX 100 (QQQ).
SPX target is 2465 by Oct 30/31 (the ten week low). March 1 to June 19 top = 76 TD's.  76 TD's from June 19 equaled Oct 5 (Hadik has a top due on the NDX between Oct 5 and 6). The NDX topped on July 27 and went down 17 TD's.  On March 1 the SPX went down 18 TD's.  This times a low around Oct 30/31 down about 3.4%. Oct 30/31 is the 10 week low from August 21.

GDX is on a strong buy signal.  Same with gold. I bought GDX 23.00 calls Oct 20, 2017 this morning at GDX 23.05.

Thursday, October 5, 2017

The SPX's move is surprising everyone including me.  8 straight days up.  The 6-7 week lows run 32-38 TD's. Upward resistance is 2557/58 for Friday and 2560/61 for Tuesday next week.
Likely we see 2487/88 by Friday the 13th, the 35 TD low (35+3). Also 14 TD's from the 24 TD low which was 14 TD's from the low before that.  Mars sq. Saturn on the 11th is hugely war like and could involve Rocket Man and Trump.


GDX should benefit next week

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Oct 4, 2017

SPX now at a 48 TD high (since July 27).  The 32 TD low is due Oct 5 +/-.  The 8 TD low is due Oct 5 +/- 2 TD's. Looking for a pull back over the next few days.

GDX is looking stronger.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Oct 2, 2017

The 32 TD low is due Thursday on the full moon with Venus conj. Mars.  We have Venus trine Pluto tonight and we are 47 TD's out from the July 27 high, which is 48-1.  A 7 week low is due Oct 11, which is the 7 week low: perhaps a double bottom.  There is a Bradley Geo turn due between Oct 3 and 5. Another due on the 8th and then around the 12th.

Tomorrow sees the 24 CD turn which in the past often times tags the acceleration points both up and down (May 17, Aug 17, Sept 11). Downside target is first around 2475 +/- 1 TD then near 2461/62.

GDX is still positively diverging.

Friday, September 29, 2017

9/29/17

Today appears to be an important ST top for the SPX, NOT an IT top.  Dec 26 saw Jupiter opp. Uranus and the next day (12/27) was a top.  It then fell the equivalent of 44 points the next three TD's.  That would equal an Oct 4 low and 32-1 TD's from the last low, which was a 32 TD low .  It looks like a Y wave top here or double top from the top 7 TD's (8-1) ago near 2508/09.  Oct 4 is a 24 CD turn.  I'm guessing that we see a Z wave move down to about 2468/69 IF 2512/13 holds.
The daily Bollinger Bands are opening on the top end, not the stuff made of a 2.5% reversal here, just enough to pause and refresh for the next move up.


I'm surprised that GDX has not moved up today, given the cycles and positively divergent indicators. perhaps next week's drop in the stock market will do the trick.  We have Mars trine Pluto over the weekend (warlike), which can lend itself to a nice drop in the stock market on Monday.  Oct 3 sees Venus trine Pluto late in the day, which means the 'b' wave on Tuesday lets go for 'c' into Wednesday.


Today has Venus opposite Neptune.  Yesterday saw Pluto go Sta./Direct with Jupiter opposing Uranus. This is the stuff made of tops or turns.  Also, today has a Sol/Sat turn.  They seems to alternate two for lows and two for tops.  This should be the second top, the one on Oct 16 should be a low (8 TD).

Thursday, September 28, 2017

9/28/17

GDX looks like it could bounce Friday.  A drop early in the morning on the SPX should be met by buying into mid session.  Looking for 2520/21 then a key reversal.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Sept 27, 2017

We had a gap up on a Y wave and then came the Z wave back down as expected.  We have completed and extremely bullish XYZ pattern.  Possible top is Sept 29 and as high as 2522/23.  Our SPY option players have gone long the SPY calls strike 250.00 for the 29th at .27/.28.

The QQQ looks extremely bullish to me.  Looks like end of the quarter window dressing could explode this up along with the gold stocks too.

PM Update: Sold our calls today.  Expecting  TLC low due Thursday near 2499/2500 SPX.  Looks like this coming top extends out to Tuesday next week near 2523/24

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

9/26/17 Update

We sold our calls early today on strength recognizing that the market is going to make new highs but just not today. Our new target is 2514/15 by Sept 28.  Jupiter opposes Uranus on Sept 27/28 and Pluto goes Sta/Dir then.  This would make TD 35+1 of the 7 week cycle and 32+4 on the Gann Cycle. This would drop the market down ABC into Oct 11 into the 2440's. about 2.5% is the current thinking.

Monday, September 25, 2017

September 25, 2017

The SPX could rally to 2530/31 by Tuesday the 26th. We are long. September 27 sees Jupiter opposing Uranus.  The last time we saw this was March 2.  March 1 was a blow off top.  If this follows the same path, we could see a 3.2% drop into Oct 20.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Sept 21, 2017

Looks like an abc x abc Z wave, complex.  One more c wave down. Test should be at least 2496.20 I would think.  Upside now is nearing 2517 SPX for Friday, the 32 TD top.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Sept 20, 2017 Update

The top I've been looking for looks like it will not occur until mid day Thursday.  We are in the area of a major cycle top (55 TD today and 32 TD due Friday).  Right now 2515/16 looks attainable, but a pull back toward 2500/01 looks like it will likely come first, perhaps first thing in the morning Thursday.  A move into the low 2460's by Monday looks to be in the cards.

We are definitely tracing out a bull flag here. We may fall into a low on the open Thursday (4+1) and rally into mid session for the high on Thursday (TD 32-1 from the August 8 top). We have Mercury trine Pluto late on the 22nd, which may end up being an exhaustion point (like Aug 9).  May 24 and 25 sees Mars sq. Neptune in mutable signs and on the 25th Mercury sq. Saturn in mutable signs.
Mars sq. Neptune is scary warlike (Neptune rules over oil and water) and Mercury sq. Saturn is a turning point (low). There is also a Helio Bradley turn due on the 25th. This would place wave B onto Sept 29 (a Sol/Saturn Turn, one day past the Jupiter/ Uranus conjunction/ Pluto Direct).  In the past, the Jupiter/Uranus conj. usually meant a top and Pluto Direct an important turning point.  On the 29th, Venus (money) opposes Uranus also.  There is a nasty Mars trine Pluto due on Oct 1, so I expect a huge down day on the 2nd.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Sept 19, 2017 Update

Expecting SPX 2515 on the 20th and by late on the 22nd 2461.

Monday, September 18, 2017

Sept 18, 2017 PM

The stock market looks as though it wants to rally into Wed's FOMC metting.  Target is now SPX 2517/18.

GDX is a bit oversold and due a nice rally.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

A Microscopic Look at the Elliott Wave & the S&P 500



A Microscopic Look at the Elliott Wave & the S&P 500

Most so called Elliotticians often times make incorrect wave counts because they don’t look at the microscopic waves that one sees at the 5 minute and even 1 minute bars.  While there can be alternative counts that work within the true wave structures as put forth by R.N. Elliott, most wavers are seeing far too many 5 wave counts in the current wave structure.  Since 2009, we’ve been in Cycle Wave 5, a 5-wave count going back to 1942. Primary Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 5 ended late in 2014 and we have been in Primary Wave 4 ever since.

While there can be some 5 wave counts, especially in the last C Waves up, we are not in a true 5 wave count anymore and won’t be until Primary Wave 4 terminates. I don’t expect this will occur until early 2019.  This would place the final Primary Wave 5 terminus of Cycle Wave 5 sometime into early/mid 2020 (2020-22/23 should see a nasty bear market, the worst since 1929-32).

The charts below are 5 minute bars and 60 minute bars.






The 60 minute chart shows a topping distribution pattern from late July into early October and a bearish rising wedge. The blue XYZ pattern begs for higher prices into early December.  The cycles beg for another lower low late in the year around December 29 (SPX 2230). Right now, it seems to me that December 2017 will not be kind to the stock market and to a lesser extent, neither will mid October (Oct 12-23). December 2017 looks to have the same cycle as the October 2014 drop that was blamed on the Ebola scare. This cycle runs about 3 years, 2.5 months. Based on this cycle, Wave 4 won’t top out (Wave Y) until early August 2018 (Wave X being February 11, 2016).

My wave count has July 20 being the A Wave top of Y with B due by year end then C of Y (or an irregular top of Primary Wave 4) due by early August 2018 (near 2590/2600).  By early 2019, I see the 2073 area tested (about 20% down from the peak) creating a powerful running correction (testing the top of Primary Wave 3).

All indications suggest a final high in early 2020 of nearly 3750 SPX based on the Equality of Waves Principle of Waves 1 and 5 (time and price). If the final 5th wave is taken back to the Cycle Wave 4 bottom (666) that would portend an 82% drop just ahead (the 1929/32 drop was about 89%).

Regarding the NASDAQ 100, I see new highs into early/mid October after the late Sept lows are put in. This new high will likely not be confirmed by the majority of indices.

Regarding GDX, there is a 10 week low due soon.  While the daily indicators are negative, we may see an attempt to rally soon that will take GDX above the recent highs.

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Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Sept 12, 2017 PM Update

SPX is doing double what it did on Sept 1.  IF this follows through, we could see a move all the way to 2428 taking out the last C wave.  This would seem highly unlikely unless we had some serious news event like North Korea or something. It is a possible e-wave scenario though.
My best guess is a we see at least the 2462/63 area with a better shot at 2454/55 where there is  a double fib cluster near 2456.  After that: 2441/42 then 24428/29 at the extreme.
This is a 'z' wave of a B wave formation.  I'm thinking a likely 2454/56 shot tomorrow. We'll see.
GDX should be a short term buy today.

Monday, September 11, 2017

Sept 11 Update

This looks like an abc "y" wave here.  A "z" wave would be due either Tuesday or Wednesday.  There is a three week low (Gann 16 TD +/-) due either Tuesday or Wednesday this week, so a pull back here makes sense (the 32 TD low is due Tuesday).  The 4 TD top is +1 today and with the Sun trine Pluto combined with the 24 CD turn, I would think mid session there should be a top and then down hard into Tuesday just like last week.  The 32 TD top plus or minus is also due this week and ideally Tuesday.  The 8 TD top is due ideally on Thursday.  The Saturn turn was a day late in late July and could be here too (the low came on the 27th but the Saturn turn was due on the 28th, now due on the 13th).  I would not be surprised to see new highs this week above 2490/91, perhaps by Wed/Thursday. Chop, chop.

PM update 2:00 EDT: I changed my mind.  The 16 TD low is WED/THURS this week.  We could easily see the 2430's SPX just ahead.  The next top would be Sept 27 where we could see all time new highs, not this go round...not yet..me thinks.  We are short the SPX via SPXS, Volatility via UVXY and SPY puts .

Saturday, September 9, 2017

Stock Market Update: Sept 13 Top?



Last time I wrote, I thought we would see a move down to SPX 2427 by the 7th.  We did have an initial drop on the 5th to 2446, but since then have been tracing out what appears to be an “a-b-c” type up-wave into my much anticipated Sept 13 top.

I still believe we see 2407 by the 18th, but higher to the 2482/83 area by the 13th.  What has thrown me off, have been the increasingly irregular wave counts that have been exhibited lately in the stock market as shown in the charts below.

After the 5 week/5 month low expected on the 18th, I believe we see new highs near 2503/05 by Oct 9.  By Oct 23, I believe we see 2327 SPX, so get ready for a nasty drop in October!




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Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Another Air Pocket Ahead



The chart below of the S&P 500 shows a drop on Sept 7 to around SPX 2427/28. Fast forward to September 13 (top) then September 18 (bottom) and we see continued choppy market behavior directly ahead. By September 18, I believe we see SPX 2407/08.


 Update 9/7/17 AM Pre-Market: 

The SPX is near the end of a bearish, classic rising wedge, B Wave formation.  The 6 TD low is due either at the end of today or early Friday (6+1, actually 8-1 TD's) within the first hour or two.  A move down to the 2427 area is highly likely within that time frame.  There may be a secondary or W bottom early Monday on the 24 CD turn.  There is a due Sun trine Pluto over the weekend and a Helio turn due on the 10th (Sunday).

Update 9/7/17 PM: 

This market is very odd.  While I still believe we have a down drop next week, we may first have a 'b' wave top on Friday 9/8 maybe around 2471 SPX.

My new information suggests 2384 by Tuesday next week which was one of my original thinking targets as WED is the 16 TD low and a sol/sat turn date.  We have the 24 CD turn due Monday and last time saw that on Thursday the 17th of August.

Hadik has a top due on Sept 8 and the Bradley could be calling for a top here instead of a low.  The last 8TD low ran 8-2 so perhaps we see 8+2 this time and that would be the 16 TD low on the 13th.






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Tuesday, August 22, 2017

August 22 2017 Update

Based on what GDX is doing and the SPX on the last 16 TD low, I believe we see a low in GDX on Friday and a high on the SPX then (8-1) where the Bradley high turn is located and Saturn turns direct. The whole SPX cycle shifted out from the normal 16 TD low due Monday last week to 21 TD's, very unusual.  The QQQ was 16+1 on Monday so it's cycle is right on.
This would place the final low on Sept 13 for the SPX and high on GDX on the same date.
Tomorrow should be a larger up day on the SPX than today, much larger, same with GDX being harder down as the GDX is moving opposite the stock market.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Big Rally Ahead!

Yesterday, I told a trader friend that the SPX could go down to as low as 2430 today (Thursday 8/17).  I didn't believe myself, now I'm listening! A big rally into August 21 to new highs then a free fall into August 31 as much as 9-11%. Yup, now I'm listening!!!


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Wednesday, August 16, 2017

8/16/17 SPX Update

11:54 AM EDT. From Aug 8 to 10 the SPX fell 5 waves down in what appears to be Wave A.  We are in Wave B.  Wave B had an (a) wave top on Monday near 2468 at the 11:00 EDT hourly bar. Since then, we have been in "b" of (b) completing 'x' and now 'y' (irregular topping action).  'z' should take us to 2447/48 by late today/early Thursday (4 TD low +/- 1 TD) with (c) topping on Friday near 2477/78.  Wave C should take us down to 2424 by August 22, completing WAVE "B". This should launch a 5 wave "C" WAVE into Sept 6 to NEW HIGHS!!



This looks like a coming FED induced sell-off today with the reading of the minutes.

Update 12:40 PM:
We have a possible B wave top today which means wave C may be on the 18th.  Equality of Waves Priniciple suggests another 53 points down or 2422.  Hadik has Aug 18-22 as the low.
Some of my hourly indicators are rolling over like 6 TD's ago. (8 TD tops and bottoms +/- 2 TD's).  I have 2 trines next week due on Monday and Tuesday and these are usually positive.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

August 15, 2017 Update

 AM Update:
 
GDX did not go as high as I expected but did turn on the date (Aug 11) I said previously was possible.  This means we go down into August 31 on GDX  and below 20.
Reverse all long positions (NUGT) on GDX to short (DUST).
SPX is running into a possible 32 TD low due either today or early Wed.  We are bouncing up against the rising bottoms line.  The 4 TD top was due yesterday but could extend into today.
A 16 TD top (SPX-  8 on the Indu) is due either Thursday or Friday this week on the SPX. It makes no sense for the stock market not to crash into August 31 same low as GDX.  The low on August 10/11 was the ideal 40/80 week low, but last March the cycle got extended by 3 weeks.

Monday, August 14, 2017

August 14, 2017 Update

One more "C" wave down expected on the SPX on Tuesday August 15 to finish the abc series.  A double bottom by August 21 and then up she goes into September 5.  Very odd for a 9/18 month low to be so shallow!! We are witnessing topping behavior over all.


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Sunday, August 13, 2017

Still More Downside Ahead for Stocks, Miners Topping

Originally, I drew the Dow Indu chart back on July 18, 2017 with a late August bottom.  I should have stuck with that idea (see archives) LOL.  I put out a sell for August 8, 2017 one week in advance.  Since then I have made 51.7% on the volatility (UVXY) ETF and 500% on SPY put options. Just goes to show you that you don't have to be perfect when forecasting just as long as you make money.

I saw the 5 wave sequence down on the SPX and some positive divergences developing late Thursday.  The market trend is still down though.  The chart below is what is possible this week going into the end of August or early September.


GDX looks like it has at least 2 more up days before it hits its top near 24.  I have been long NUGT since GDX 22.19.





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Friday, August 11, 2017

8/11/17 Update

The SPX had some positive divergences develop Thursday on the VST and ST indicators.  The IT is still down.  I counted what looked like a 5 wave (a) wave and now "b" with the dreaded © of z of Z still directly ahead.  Minimum down side by late Tuesday should be near 2268.04 where the © wave of C started.
 
The 4 TD low pulled back into 3, suggesting an absolute hard down low into late Tuesday and early Wednesday next week where I said the 32/64 combo is due.  Early Wed is also 10 TD for the 8 TD low +2.  The 16 TD low last ran a day early and is due Monday, but adding the extra day puts it into Tuesday along with the all other Gann Cycles.

An alternative target for the SPX based on the 200 DMA and past action in the move up since Feb 2016 is 2306-09.  2268 +/- fits the E-Wave expectations and the Sun/Mars conjunction much better.  We'll see.

The Hurst Cycles have a much wider variance ideally being due around August 11-14 +/-.
 
GDX could easily rally 2 to 3 more days.

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

August 9, 2017 Update

One of my subs (Robert G.V. thx!) sent this link to Armstrong's Newsletter Alert this morning on war cycles:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/north-korea-beware-august-2017/
This would fit with a meltdown on Monday like I was thinking. This coming move could rival the August 18-24, 2015 meltdown (that was blamed on China).  % wise, we need to see 2456 SPX today at some point in order to be in alignment.  The SPX is oversold in the short term and needs to make a bear flag, so some sideways movement is expected.
IF we fall 11.2% (top to bottom) like we did in August 2015, that would target the 2211/12 area.  To me, that would say that this would be (X) of "B" with (Y) and (Z) yet to come into early next year with the final "C" of intermediate wave Y (of primary wave 4)  yet to come into August 2018 where the McClellan noted oil peak of 2008 + 10 years predicts a stock market top.

Monday, August 7, 2017

The Case for SPX 2265.22 by August 14th



The Case for SPX 2265.22 by August 14th
In the following charts, I present the case for SPX 2265.22 by August 14th, 2017.  That is only one week away and would knock about 8.5% off the major average.

I use astrology, Gann & Hurst Cycles, E-Wave and charting techniques to prove my point.






GDX looks like it will try to rally this week as the stock market falls.  GDX has an 8 TD cycle top due Friday near Mercury Rx (8/12-13) just under 24.00 resistance.

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