Tuesday, January 31, 2017

The 4% Drop Ahead: Down into February 6th?

The chart below explains why I now believe we drop down into February 6th to the 2202 SPX level.  The next few days may be choppy as we form a bear flag around the rising trend line.  SoLunar turn days ahead include Jan 31, Feb 2, Feb 4-7 and Feb 10. Mercury squares Uranus on Jan 31, and Jupiter on Feb 2.

 Feb 6th is when Jupiter turns retrograde (with the moon in Gemini). Feb 10 is when the moon in Leo turns full and has an eclipse.  Balances of lows and highs suggest a low on Feb 6th and a high on Feb 10. The coming xyz pattern suggests another new high (Feb 10) before turning down into mid/late March, perhaps as much as 14%.


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Friday, January 27, 2017

The Long Awaited 4% Pullback May Be Close

Last time I wrote, I said that a 10-week bottom was close and could come as late January 31.  Venus square Saturn (today) has a variance of +/- 2 TD’s, the ten-week low can come as late as January 31 and the 16 TD low can come as late as +4 or 20 TD’s (January 31).

The odds are high in my book for a big down draft on Monday into Tuesday next week. My target is 2205 on the S&P 500 (we’ll see) Tuesday. There are positive astros for a peak on Feb 10 with Mercury sextile Venus.  If we drop hard over the next 2 trading days, the pattern would suggest a strong rebound rally to new highs by then, likely somewhere in the 2310’s.

There is the possibility we see S&P 500 1991/92 by the third week of March, or a 14% drop.  I was thinking that early on, doubted it, now I again think it is possible.

Right now, the sentiment is out the roof positive (bullish), which makes me a very short term bear.  I have some negative non-confirmations on a lot of my indicators. Thursday sported an evening star. Any pull back next week should be bought for one final, strong rally, IMO (at least in this phase of the market).


My subs are heavily short right now in SPXS, UVXY and SPY puts, getting ready to buy the dip.

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Thursday, January 12, 2017

Unlucky Friday the 13th?



The stock market is nearing the ten week cycle low from November 4th, 2016.  The daily Bollinger bands are tightly squeezed together suggesting a break-out one way or the other (an expansion of volatility). The SPX broke the uptrend line today only to close back above the line.  Normally, this is a sign of strength, but the OBV did not confirm the recent highs suggesting the smart money has already moved away from the market. I would call this a sign of weakness.

All it takes is a straw to break the proverbial camel’s back and that straw could enter the picture on Friday the 13th. We had a similar set up on Friday September 9th, 2016. This is not a prediction, but rather a head’s up.


If a Friday the 13th event takes place (which is possible), I would then shift my March 2017 target to just down 5%, somewhere in the 2160’s.

GDX looks as though it could fall hard here too into next week, just like early September.  We caught the recent decline, then the up move into today (from yesterday), and then went short again near 23.18.

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Copyright 2017, Bradley Ray Gudgeon

Monday, January 2, 2017

Stock Market, PM Sector Forecast: 2017-2022



Two weeks ago, I was looking at a possible 2330 SPX by year’s end. By December 23rd, I told my subs to expect a rally into December 27, and then a bottom near December 29th, somewhere between SPX 2238-52.  The SPX closed at 2238 on the December 30th, after tagging 2233/34.

I believe we have one more sub-minuette 5th wave rally left to 2322/23 by or around January 6th and then a drop to near 1991/92 by around March 16 (there is a major Bradley due March 16th, which fits better for a low than March 21, IMO). New highs by September/October 2017 should lead a to nasty “Z Wave of Primary Wave 4” bear market in 2018. The final fifth wave could be stretched out until early 2020 giving us a possible three years left before the great reset begins.


The miners had a key reversal on Friday, which points to some currency issues around January 9-12 (and a higher dollar with lower PM prices).  Mercury Stationary/Direct on January 8th should lead to a key reversal in the metals on the 9th, then down into January 12th.


 

Overall, I believe the miners are coming into a major low in mid March, with the metals due in mid February.  We may be in for a sideways basing period soon that should launch higher into the September/October 2017 time zone. I may be wrong, but I still believe these expected rallies will end up being nothing but bear rallies until we go below $700 an ounce gold and $9 an ounce silver. This may not occur until 2022. The expected stock market reset low may not occur until 2022, also.

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