Friday, June 23, 2017

June 23, 2017

We are bouncing off an 8 TD low on Wednesday which means higher today and maybe even into Monday, even to new highs.  IF this happens (new highs Monday) it would be an unusual e-wave complex.  So in this case I would rather stand aside.  The next 8 TD low is due early July or end of June. 
The ten week low is due ideally on Monday next week, but has some variance (+/- 6.5  TD's).  The 2403/04 area SPX begs to be tested. There is an astro trine due over the weekend that may suggest a top on Monday. The earliest the 8 TD low should come into play would be Thursday next week.  The three week low is due Friday next week +/-.
Today is a new moon which means reversal, and so it is so far coming off a secondary (b wave) bottom. I'm in cash.

GDX is bouncing off a z of B wave low. A move into the mid/upper $24 looks likely by early July.
I am long via NUGT.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

June 22, 2017 Update

GDX looks to have based Wednesday and should be up into about July 5.  Targeting the mid to upper $24 region.

The SPX looks to have finished wave 'a' of "z" of B.  Daily trend is obviously down.  The SPX has broken an up trend line of a rising wedge and now moving back inside the rising wedge.  The 4 TD top is Friday and we have a new moon and a trine (exhaustion top) over the weekend.

 Monday/Tuesday next week (5/10 week low) should be down to test the 2403/04 SPX area, the 50% retracement of the move up from May 18.  It is also where 'c' of "c" of the larger A Wave based.

A final top around July 7th/10th is still calling.

Monday, June 19, 2017

Quick Airpocket Ahead, Miners Look Good

The stock market is due for a sudden air pocket, likely from Tuesday to Thursday this week. My downside target is 2398 +/-. We are due for the 10 week low from April 13, 2017.  The SPX is making an irregular abc type (y) wave top that is not being confirmed by stochastics or the MACD daily. Last time we saw this was May 16-17, 2017 on the 5 and 7 week low. The pattern is bullish once resolved.  We should see a final top on or near July 5-7.

Astro-wise, the Sun, Mercury and Mars conjunct on June 21 in Cancer, with the moon in Gemini until the 22nd. June 21 should bear the brunt of the downside. We have two Bradley turns due June 21/22.  Last time we saw this same combo was May 18/19. The latest the bottom should occur would be June 23.

Higher prices are in the cards into either late June or early July on the 43/44 week highs and we are near a 38 TD top (thanks to Yani from London, England for showing these to me). These agree with my other cycle work as well.

GDX is sporting a very bullish xyz pattern bull flag.  All thing being equal, we might expect GDX go up into the high 24.00 area near 24.75 no later than late June or early July. This appears to be an Elliott bear rally, so beware.  I think much lower prices are coming.

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Thursday, June 15, 2017

June 15, 2017 Update

Today had Saturn Oppose the Sun which brought in some bearish action.  We are near a 4 TD low so should see higher action into Monday next week.  We have Neptune turning retrograde on Friday.

Monday, June 12, 2017

Sideways Bull Flag on SPX and GDX

The 2 charts below show a sideways bull flag on both SPX and GDX.  Higher highs for both after this week (into late June) probable.

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Thursday, June 8, 2017

Good Sized Drop in Equities, Rally in Gold Near

Today (June 8) is the 4/16 TD top.  The next low is due on June 12. A sudden sharp sell-off in equities (likely June 9) and a rally in gold is due into Monday.  My best guess now is that we see a move into the 2380/90’s.  GDX could easily move from the 22.90’s (forecasted 2 days ago) into the low 24.00’s.

Below are charts of the SPX and GDX.

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June 8 Update

9:45 AM EDT

SPX finishing what looks like a 'y' wave of a wxy bear flag this morning.  The June 14 low option may be on the table or it could be June 9/12.  Possible move into as low as the 2370's SPX coming.

GDX pulling back toward the broken down trend line as expect.  Looking for a maximum of the 22.90's today.

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

June 6, 2017 Update

Morning Update:

SPX Futures down about 6.  Earlier on, down about 8. We are in the "a" wave of Z, which should end sometime today (late).  Any attempt to rally late today ('w' of "b") will likely be met with more selling on Wednesday ('x'), then another attempt to rally ('y' of "b") into Thursday.
It's been a long time since I've seen this kind of set up, but IF I'm right, Friday will be the HUGE down day this week.  Looking for 2337/38 minimum downside Friday.
Overall, we should attempt to challenge SPX 2303 (2305/06?) Wednesday, and then Thursday rally toward 2417/18 before tanking to 2337/38 Friday.

GDX back above 23.00 as gold rallies yet again about $11-12.  GDX is NOT keeping pace with gold, which is highly unusual. GDX's OBV and money flow are telling us that higher price are ahead as money keeps buying the dips.
My target of 24.60 Friday looks to be a blow-off type of event with GDX back down to the 20.40/.50 area by July 10.  I'm waiting until Thursday to go long GDX via NUGT and calls.

12:47 PM (EDT) Update:

Today, GDX broke out above a declining tops line.  Next expectation is to snap back to that line.  We are near 23.60 right now, so snap back should occur by Thursday this week near 22.95.  After that a move into the low 24.00's by Monday.  The whole pattern smacks of a Y wave due next Monday (last time we made that kind of top [wave "a"] was the day before the stock markets fell hard on May 18 'a' of wave "x"). and a Z wave due on the 19th, suggesting a top near July 3rd into the mid 25.00's. 
Right now, the hourly Bollinger Bands are constricting suggesting a sharp move down early Wednesday on the SPX.  A break of the hourly up trend line suggests a move down to test 2415 and quite possibly 2405 (to the second touch point of the rising trend line).  This could be Wave [x] of a B wave (with the A Wave occurring on Friday last week, abc x abc, from the April 13 low), and [y] due on Monday near 2446-48 setting up the classic price momentum divergence (we already have had a volume momentum divergence) which leads to a [z] wave decline (2391? third fan formation line).
This means the SPX low will not occur until June 14, 16+2 on the 16 TD low and 55 TD's  on the 50 TD low.  The 4's will be running 5 and the next 8 will be running 10.
I have been looking at the helio Bradley and there is a change due tomorrow and the next one due next Wed next week. The geo Bradley is due June 9th and looks to be pointing to a top (not bottom like I have been thinking) near the full moon (the day after the 9th or the 12th).  We also have Jupiter Stationary/Direct Friday.
The Mars/Saturn opposition on May 29 has an orb of just over two weeks, and that runs into the 13th of June.
How we react from Wed into Thurs this week will be the tell on the SPX, in other words the action Wed into Thursday will suggest a move up into Monday IF Thursday moves down to a secondary low higher than Wed's low after Wednesday rallies into a Dragonfly Doji.  If we move higher instead on Thursday, the odds are then pointing to all likely hood that I have second guessed my self and the original scenario is likely in play.

Saturday, June 3, 2017

OBV Momentum Failure Portends Big Drop Ahead

Last week, I was looking for a pull back into May 31’s 8 TD low.  The move down, however, was extremely shallow (wave ‘b’ 2418 down to 2403) and wave ‘c’ of Y looked to have finished on June 2 (or will finish by June 5 near 2440).  The trines of June 1 (Venus trine Saturn) and June 3 (Sun trine Jupiter) are usually found near tops.
On June 3, we have Venus conjunct Uranus in Aries (Mars rules Aries) and then the Sun squares Neptune in Gemini-Pisces June 4 while the Mars opposition to Saturn (May 29) orb still influences about two weeks out (through the end of next week).  Mars leaves Gemini the same day and enters Cancer (but still within the influence of Gemini). 

On June 5, the moon enters Scorpio (rued by Mars and Pluto), typically a day when the market tops and falls into the Sagittarius moon. The moon will be in harmony to Mars and Neptune until June 7th.  On June 6 to 7, Mercury enters Gemini, conjuncting the Sun, but opposite Saturn and later the moon (a lot of conflict in mutable signs, not good for the stock market).

On late June 7th, the moon leaves Scorpio and enters into Sagittarius (conjuncting Saturn) opposing the Sun (squaring Neptune) and Mercury. By the full moon of June 9 we have Jupiter in Libra (opposite Venus and Uranus) turning stationary/direct.
This is a lot to chew on I know, but the implications are enormous. According to the e-wave count, the coming 10/70 week low (due ideally June 7 +/-) and the Saturn/Uranus trine topping influence (until about July 10th) as well as the chart of GDX, I believe I have the found the correct e-wave count (I was amiss on the correct count last week, I do apologize). 

Currently, the On Balance Volume readings on the SPX and SPY do not confirm the late May top (over the March 2017 or mid May tops) nor the June 2 top over the late May top.  Price momentum confirms a higher high yet to come (July 10?), but not the volume-money flow momentum. This means selling pressure is increasing on down days and buying pressure is decreasing on up days.  May 31-June 2 showed the worst of the OBV negative momentum, giving us a hint that the stock market is about ready to drop, and drop hard and fast (I believe the May 31-June 2 rally was a sucker’s play). 

The last Bradley turn was due June 1 +/- and the next is due June 9th.  The next 8 TD low is due ideally early on June 12.  There is a 4 TD low (wave ‘a’ of Z of B) due Tuesday June 6 and a possible ‘b’ wave top due on Wednesday, which leaves the dreaded ‘c’ of Z drop (an Elliott third of a third) between June 7 and June 9.  By June 12, the moon will have already left Sagittarius and Capricorn (where the lows are generally found). The full moon is a reversal signature and so is Jupiter stationary/direct (my guess based on all this is that the FED will not raise rates in June). 

A large rally from June 9th to July 10th is likely with new highs perhaps into the 2450’s or 2460’s. My best guess is we see around 2274 SPX (see charts below) on the coming drop next week (down about 6.8%).  I see is a sudden sharp move up (9.8%) on GDX from June 7 to 9 (see chart below), which has me concerned that something sudden like a military strike or act of violence is about to take place (I mentioned this last week).

When all the dust is settled, the traders will see this as an opportunity to buy yet another dip.  After July 10, we have the Sun conjunct Mars in Leo on the 26th of July (which in the past has pointed to a 10%+ correction) surrounding this aspect and again Mars in Leo conjuncts the Sun eclipse over America on August 21 (which incidentally will come right over my house for 2 minutes and 30 seconds of complete darkness, I live 20 miles north east of Nashville, TN). 

If the mining shares continue to trade opposite the stock market, then I believe August 24th will be the big correction low (or close). August 21 will be exactly 50 trading days from the expected June 9 low (which will be 52 TD’s from the March 27 low). The ten week lows run about 50 TD’s +/- 6 TD’s. The August low will be the 10/20/40 and 80 week low (1.5 year) from Feb 11, 2016.

I have given two possibilities as to how low the stock market will drop into the summer.  My best guess is, we see a mild Running Correction of around 15%.  My thinking is based on the fact that Intermediate Wave Y of Primary Wave 4 went so far above the previous Primary Wave 3 (around SPX 2073, Nov 2015) and the Rising Wedge formation, which usually predicts a drop back to the second touch point ends at 2083. I can say with confidence that all of the Trump rally will be wiped out by August 2017.  What I can’t say for sure is if the Wave Z of 4 drop will terminate at 2083 or not.  IF the SPX breaks the area between 2073/2083 SPX, then I fear we are in for something bigger on the down side, like down into the 1700’s (see weekly chart below) to finish Primary Wave 4.

The chart of GDX shows a move up from the 20.40/.50 area on July 10 to the 28.00 area by August 24 (based on the Equality of Wave Principle and lines of resistance). This amounts to about a 38.5% move up (GDX and NUGT players take notice!).  I would think that if the stock market were to take a bigger hit than 15%, (and GDX was moving opposite the market due to fear) that the GDX move would be substantially higher than 38.5% by August 24th. It all remains to be seen.

The Mars placements in the charts in July/August are definitely warlike (or possibly just saber rattling), but in any case enough to cause fear in the markets.  I believe the USA will likely be involved and possibly Iran or North Korea (or both).  At this point, it is pure speculation on my part, so I leave the decision to fate.

Again, I caution investor/traders that the opinions here are just that: opinions.  There are times when the forecast becomes clear and amazingly accurate. However, there are other times when the waters become murky, making it harder to see. Each day brings new information to analyze, which allows one to trade the markets more effectively.

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