Tuesday, August 22, 2017

August 22 2017 Update

Based on what GDX is doing and the SPX on the last 16 TD low, I believe we see a low in GDX on Friday and a high on the SPX then (8-1) where the Bradley high turn is located and Saturn turns direct. The whole SPX cycle shifted out from the normal 16 TD low due Monday last week to 21 TD's, very unusual.  The QQQ was 16+1 on Monday so it's cycle is right on.
This would place the final low on Sept 13 for the SPX and high on GDX on the same date.
Tomorrow should be a larger up day on the SPX than today, much larger, same with GDX being harder down as the GDX is moving opposite the stock market.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Big Rally Ahead!

Yesterday, I told a trader friend that the SPX could go down to as low as 2430 today (Thursday 8/17).  I didn't believe myself, now I'm listening! A big rally into August 21 to new highs then a free fall into August 31 as much as 9-11%. Yup, now I'm listening!!!


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Wednesday, August 16, 2017

8/16/17 SPX Update

11:54 AM EDT. From Aug 8 to 10 the SPX fell 5 waves down in what appears to be Wave A.  We are in Wave B.  Wave B had an (a) wave top on Monday near 2468 at the 11:00 EDT hourly bar. Since then, we have been in "b" of (b) completing 'x' and now 'y' (irregular topping action).  'z' should take us to 2447/48 by late today/early Thursday (4 TD low +/- 1 TD) with (c) topping on Friday near 2477/78.  Wave C should take us down to 2424 by August 22, completing WAVE "B". This should launch a 5 wave "C" WAVE into Sept 6 to NEW HIGHS!!



This looks like a coming FED induced sell-off today with the reading of the minutes.

Update 12:40 PM:
We have a possible B wave top today which means wave C may be on the 18th.  Equality of Waves Priniciple suggests another 53 points down or 2422.  Hadik has Aug 18-22 as the low.
Some of my hourly indicators are rolling over like 6 TD's ago. (8 TD tops and bottoms +/- 2 TD's).  I have 2 trines next week due on Monday and Tuesday and these are usually positive.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

August 15, 2017 Update

 AM Update:
 
GDX did not go as high as I expected but did turn on the date (Aug 11) I said previously was possible.  This means we go down into August 31 on GDX  and below 20.
Reverse all long positions (NUGT) on GDX to short (DUST).
SPX is running into a possible 32 TD low due either today or early Wed.  We are bouncing up against the rising bottoms line.  The 4 TD top was due yesterday but could extend into today.
A 16 TD top (SPX-  8 on the Indu) is due either Thursday or Friday this week on the SPX. It makes no sense for the stock market not to crash into August 31 same low as GDX.  The low on August 10/11 was the ideal 40/80 week low, but last March the cycle got extended by 3 weeks.

Monday, August 14, 2017

August 14, 2017 Update

One more "C" wave down expected on the SPX on Tuesday August 15 to finish the abc series.  A double bottom by August 21 and then up she goes into September 5.  Very odd for a 9/18 month low to be so shallow!! We are witnessing topping behavior over all.


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Sunday, August 13, 2017

Still More Downside Ahead for Stocks, Miners Topping

Originally, I drew the Dow Indu chart back on July 18, 2017 with a late August bottom.  I should have stuck with that idea (see archives) LOL.  I put out a sell for August 8, 2017 one week in advance.  Since then I have made 51.7% on the volatility (UVXY) ETF and 500% on SPY put options. Just goes to show you that you don't have to be perfect when forecasting just as long as you make money.

I saw the 5 wave sequence down on the SPX and some positive divergences developing late Thursday.  The market trend is still down though.  The chart below is what is possible this week going into the end of August or early September.


GDX looks like it has at least 2 more up days before it hits its top near 24.  I have been long NUGT since GDX 22.19.





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Friday, August 11, 2017

8/11/17 Update

The SPX had some positive divergences develop Thursday on the VST and ST indicators.  The IT is still down.  I counted what looked like a 5 wave (a) wave and now "b" with the dreaded © of z of Z still directly ahead.  Minimum down side by late Tuesday should be near 2268.04 where the © wave of C started.
 
The 4 TD low pulled back into 3, suggesting an absolute hard down low into late Tuesday and early Wednesday next week where I said the 32/64 combo is due.  Early Wed is also 10 TD for the 8 TD low +2.  The 16 TD low last ran a day early and is due Monday, but adding the extra day puts it into Tuesday along with the all other Gann Cycles.

An alternative target for the SPX based on the 200 DMA and past action in the move up since Feb 2016 is 2306-09.  2268 +/- fits the E-Wave expectations and the Sun/Mars conjunction much better.  We'll see.

The Hurst Cycles have a much wider variance ideally being due around August 11-14 +/-.
 
GDX could easily rally 2 to 3 more days.

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

August 9, 2017 Update

One of my subs (Robert G.V. thx!) sent this link to Armstrong's Newsletter Alert this morning on war cycles:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/north-korea-beware-august-2017/
This would fit with a meltdown on Monday like I was thinking. This coming move could rival the August 18-24, 2015 meltdown (that was blamed on China).  % wise, we need to see 2456 SPX today at some point in order to be in alignment.  The SPX is oversold in the short term and needs to make a bear flag, so some sideways movement is expected.
IF we fall 11.2% (top to bottom) like we did in August 2015, that would target the 2211/12 area.  To me, that would say that this would be (X) of "B" with (Y) and (Z) yet to come into early next year with the final "C" of intermediate wave Y (of primary wave 4)  yet to come into August 2018 where the McClellan noted oil peak of 2008 + 10 years predicts a stock market top.

Monday, August 7, 2017

The Case for SPX 2265.22 by August 14th



The Case for SPX 2265.22 by August 14th
In the following charts, I present the case for SPX 2265.22 by August 14th, 2017.  That is only one week away and would knock about 8.5% off the major average.

I use astrology, Gann & Hurst Cycles, E-Wave and charting techniques to prove my point.






GDX looks like it will try to rally this week as the stock market falls.  GDX has an 8 TD cycle top due Friday near Mercury Rx (8/12-13) just under 24.00 resistance.

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Wednesday, August 2, 2017

August 2, 2017 Update

Updated 11:49 EDT:

The current pattern suggests that we might make a new high into the upper 2480's SPX early Thursday and then sell-off hard.  Transports making bear flag into early Thursday. Downside support near 2450.

A secondary top should be forming around early Wed August 9 at the latest.This would put the final 80 week low out as late as Tuesday August 15 IF August 9 is THE secondary top.