Friday, September 29, 2017

9/29/17

Today appears to be an important ST top for the SPX, NOT an IT top.  Dec 26 saw Jupiter opp. Uranus and the next day (12/27) was a top.  It then fell the equivalent of 44 points the next three TD's.  That would equal an Oct 4 low and 32-1 TD's from the last low, which was a 32 TD low .  It looks like a Y wave top here or double top from the top 7 TD's (8-1) ago near 2508/09.  Oct 4 is a 24 CD turn.  I'm guessing that we see a Z wave move down to about 2468/69 IF 2512/13 holds.
The daily Bollinger Bands are opening on the top end, not the stuff made of a 2.5% reversal here, just enough to pause and refresh for the next move up.


I'm surprised that GDX has not moved up today, given the cycles and positively divergent indicators. perhaps next week's drop in the stock market will do the trick.  We have Mars trine Pluto over the weekend (warlike), which can lend itself to a nice drop in the stock market on Monday.  Oct 3 sees Venus trine Pluto late in the day, which means the 'b' wave on Tuesday lets go for 'c' into Wednesday.


Today has Venus opposite Neptune.  Yesterday saw Pluto go Sta./Direct with Jupiter opposing Uranus. This is the stuff made of tops or turns.  Also, today has a Sol/Sat turn.  They seems to alternate two for lows and two for tops.  This should be the second top, the one on Oct 16 should be a low (8 TD).

Thursday, September 28, 2017

9/28/17

GDX looks like it could bounce Friday.  A drop early in the morning on the SPX should be met by buying into mid session.  Looking for 2520/21 then a key reversal.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Sept 27, 2017

We had a gap up on a Y wave and then came the Z wave back down as expected.  We have completed and extremely bullish XYZ pattern.  Possible top is Sept 29 and as high as 2522/23.  Our SPY option players have gone long the SPY calls strike 250.00 for the 29th at .27/.28.

The QQQ looks extremely bullish to me.  Looks like end of the quarter window dressing could explode this up along with the gold stocks too.

PM Update: Sold our calls today.  Expecting  TLC low due Thursday near 2499/2500 SPX.  Looks like this coming top extends out to Tuesday next week near 2523/24

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

9/26/17 Update

We sold our calls early today on strength recognizing that the market is going to make new highs but just not today. Our new target is 2514/15 by Sept 28.  Jupiter opposes Uranus on Sept 27/28 and Pluto goes Sta/Dir then.  This would make TD 35+1 of the 7 week cycle and 32+4 on the Gann Cycle. This would drop the market down ABC into Oct 11 into the 2440's. about 2.5% is the current thinking.

Monday, September 25, 2017

September 25, 2017

The SPX could rally to 2530/31 by Tuesday the 26th. We are long. September 27 sees Jupiter opposing Uranus.  The last time we saw this was March 2.  March 1 was a blow off top.  If this follows the same path, we could see a 3.2% drop into Oct 20.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Sept 21, 2017

Looks like an abc x abc Z wave, complex.  One more c wave down. Test should be at least 2496.20 I would think.  Upside now is nearing 2517 SPX for Friday, the 32 TD top.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Sept 20, 2017 Update

The top I've been looking for looks like it will not occur until mid day Thursday.  We are in the area of a major cycle top (55 TD today and 32 TD due Friday).  Right now 2515/16 looks attainable, but a pull back toward 2500/01 looks like it will likely come first, perhaps first thing in the morning Thursday.  A move into the low 2460's by Monday looks to be in the cards.

We are definitely tracing out a bull flag here. We may fall into a low on the open Thursday (4+1) and rally into mid session for the high on Thursday (TD 32-1 from the August 8 top). We have Mercury trine Pluto late on the 22nd, which may end up being an exhaustion point (like Aug 9).  May 24 and 25 sees Mars sq. Neptune in mutable signs and on the 25th Mercury sq. Saturn in mutable signs.
Mars sq. Neptune is scary warlike (Neptune rules over oil and water) and Mercury sq. Saturn is a turning point (low). There is also a Helio Bradley turn due on the 25th. This would place wave B onto Sept 29 (a Sol/Saturn Turn, one day past the Jupiter/ Uranus conjunction/ Pluto Direct).  In the past, the Jupiter/Uranus conj. usually meant a top and Pluto Direct an important turning point.  On the 29th, Venus (money) opposes Uranus also.  There is a nasty Mars trine Pluto due on Oct 1, so I expect a huge down day on the 2nd.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Sept 19, 2017 Update

Expecting SPX 2515 on the 20th and by late on the 22nd 2461.

Monday, September 18, 2017

Sept 18, 2017 PM

The stock market looks as though it wants to rally into Wed's FOMC metting.  Target is now SPX 2517/18.

GDX is a bit oversold and due a nice rally.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

A Microscopic Look at the Elliott Wave & the S&P 500



A Microscopic Look at the Elliott Wave & the S&P 500

Most so called Elliotticians often times make incorrect wave counts because they don’t look at the microscopic waves that one sees at the 5 minute and even 1 minute bars.  While there can be alternative counts that work within the true wave structures as put forth by R.N. Elliott, most wavers are seeing far too many 5 wave counts in the current wave structure.  Since 2009, we’ve been in Cycle Wave 5, a 5-wave count going back to 1942. Primary Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 5 ended late in 2014 and we have been in Primary Wave 4 ever since.

While there can be some 5 wave counts, especially in the last C Waves up, we are not in a true 5 wave count anymore and won’t be until Primary Wave 4 terminates. I don’t expect this will occur until early 2019.  This would place the final Primary Wave 5 terminus of Cycle Wave 5 sometime into early/mid 2020 (2020-22/23 should see a nasty bear market, the worst since 1929-32).

The charts below are 5 minute bars and 60 minute bars.






The 60 minute chart shows a topping distribution pattern from late July into early October and a bearish rising wedge. The blue XYZ pattern begs for higher prices into early December.  The cycles beg for another lower low late in the year around December 29 (SPX 2230). Right now, it seems to me that December 2017 will not be kind to the stock market and to a lesser extent, neither will mid October (Oct 12-23). December 2017 looks to have the same cycle as the October 2014 drop that was blamed on the Ebola scare. This cycle runs about 3 years, 2.5 months. Based on this cycle, Wave 4 won’t top out (Wave Y) until early August 2018 (Wave X being February 11, 2016).

My wave count has July 20 being the A Wave top of Y with B due by year end then C of Y (or an irregular top of Primary Wave 4) due by early August 2018 (near 2590/2600).  By early 2019, I see the 2073 area tested (about 20% down from the peak) creating a powerful running correction (testing the top of Primary Wave 3).

All indications suggest a final high in early 2020 of nearly 3750 SPX based on the Equality of Waves Principle of Waves 1 and 5 (time and price). If the final 5th wave is taken back to the Cycle Wave 4 bottom (666) that would portend an 82% drop just ahead (the 1929/32 drop was about 89%).

Regarding the NASDAQ 100, I see new highs into early/mid October after the late Sept lows are put in. This new high will likely not be confirmed by the majority of indices.

Regarding GDX, there is a 10 week low due soon.  While the daily indicators are negative, we may see an attempt to rally soon that will take GDX above the recent highs.

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Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Sept 12, 2017 PM Update

SPX is doing double what it did on Sept 1.  IF this follows through, we could see a move all the way to 2428 taking out the last C wave.  This would seem highly unlikely unless we had some serious news event like North Korea or something. It is a possible e-wave scenario though.
My best guess is a we see at least the 2462/63 area with a better shot at 2454/55 where there is  a double fib cluster near 2456.  After that: 2441/42 then 24428/29 at the extreme.
This is a 'z' wave of a B wave formation.  I'm thinking a likely 2454/56 shot tomorrow. We'll see.
GDX should be a short term buy today.

Monday, September 11, 2017

Sept 11 Update

This looks like an abc "y" wave here.  A "z" wave would be due either Tuesday or Wednesday.  There is a three week low (Gann 16 TD +/-) due either Tuesday or Wednesday this week, so a pull back here makes sense (the 32 TD low is due Tuesday).  The 4 TD top is +1 today and with the Sun trine Pluto combined with the 24 CD turn, I would think mid session there should be a top and then down hard into Tuesday just like last week.  The 32 TD top plus or minus is also due this week and ideally Tuesday.  The 8 TD top is due ideally on Thursday.  The Saturn turn was a day late in late July and could be here too (the low came on the 27th but the Saturn turn was due on the 28th, now due on the 13th).  I would not be surprised to see new highs this week above 2490/91, perhaps by Wed/Thursday. Chop, chop.

PM update 2:00 EDT: I changed my mind.  The 16 TD low is WED/THURS this week.  We could easily see the 2430's SPX just ahead.  The next top would be Sept 27 where we could see all time new highs, not this go round...not yet..me thinks.  We are short the SPX via SPXS, Volatility via UVXY and SPY puts .

Saturday, September 9, 2017

Stock Market Update: Sept 13 Top?



Last time I wrote, I thought we would see a move down to SPX 2427 by the 7th.  We did have an initial drop on the 5th to 2446, but since then have been tracing out what appears to be an “a-b-c” type up-wave into my much anticipated Sept 13 top.

I still believe we see 2407 by the 18th, but higher to the 2482/83 area by the 13th.  What has thrown me off, have been the increasingly irregular wave counts that have been exhibited lately in the stock market as shown in the charts below.

After the 5 week/5 month low expected on the 18th, I believe we see new highs near 2503/05 by Oct 9.  By Oct 23, I believe we see 2327 SPX, so get ready for a nasty drop in October!




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Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Another Air Pocket Ahead



The chart below of the S&P 500 shows a drop on Sept 7 to around SPX 2427/28. Fast forward to September 13 (top) then September 18 (bottom) and we see continued choppy market behavior directly ahead. By September 18, I believe we see SPX 2407/08.


 Update 9/7/17 AM Pre-Market: 

The SPX is near the end of a bearish, classic rising wedge, B Wave formation.  The 6 TD low is due either at the end of today or early Friday (6+1, actually 8-1 TD's) within the first hour or two.  A move down to the 2427 area is highly likely within that time frame.  There may be a secondary or W bottom early Monday on the 24 CD turn.  There is a due Sun trine Pluto over the weekend and a Helio turn due on the 10th (Sunday).

Update 9/7/17 PM: 

This market is very odd.  While I still believe we have a down drop next week, we may first have a 'b' wave top on Friday 9/8 maybe around 2471 SPX.

My new information suggests 2384 by Tuesday next week which was one of my original thinking targets as WED is the 16 TD low and a sol/sat turn date.  We have the 24 CD turn due Monday and last time saw that on Thursday the 17th of August.

Hadik has a top due on Sept 8 and the Bradley could be calling for a top here instead of a low.  The last 8TD low ran 8-2 so perhaps we see 8+2 this time and that would be the 16 TD low on the 13th.






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