Sunday, November 12, 2017

New Highs Ahead?

Nov 11 sees Saturn trine Uranus. Venus conjunct Jupiter occurs on the 13th.  Normally, this is a very positive sign.  I fully expect the SPX to rally 20-21 point on Monday to finally break the 2600 level.  The SPX continues to show signs of momentum failure as well as advance/decline line failures on the NYSE.  This means the advance is becoming narrow, a warning sign for at least some short term pull backs ahead possibly into the Mars opposite Uranus aspect on or around Dec 1.
The next Bradley turns are due around Nov 17/18 then Dec 3.  The last was Nov 6/7 when the 7th turned down into the 3 week/57 TD low due on Thursday.  Our next low is the 3 week/70 TD low due Nov 30/Dec 1.
Technical weakness is fighting seasonal strength.  The trend is still up, but we should expect some weakness again in January as we see the twenty week low once again.  I think we eventually see the 2680's visited, but it may be a laborious road getting there.  Mid 2018 (August 21?) should represent an important bull top.  Meanwhile, a 9 month low is due in April 2018, so we may see a seasonal top around Feb/March.
Bottom line: the Stock Market is fighting to get to a bull market top in the upper 2600's.  I think we see a Wave 4 20% bear into January 2019 (support near 2073) just like the Wave 2 low in Oct 2011 (May/Oct 2011).  January 2019 to Feb/Mar 2020 should see a blow off 5th wave near 3750. I believe we are nearing the end of one of the greatest bull markets in history! 2020-2022 could rival the 1929-32 crash!
Gold and silver (and mining shares) may be in a bear rally phase since 2015/16.  The next low is due 2022/23.  August 2018 should be an important top.

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Monday, November 6, 2017

Topping Behavior, 2 Days Down?

The SPX should make an astro/cycle top today.  There isn't much room to rally, IMO, maybe 4-5 points.  IF we rally into mid session, we could see an evening star pattern. Likely we see down into Wednesday though.  IF we hold 2558 and cover the gap at 2560, we are likely then to see higher highs into week's end as this possible pattern would suggest higher highs.

There is a 70 TD cycle low (5/14 week low) due around Nov 29 and the 70 TD cycle might suggest a top on Friday this week, along with a positive trine on Nov 11.

GDX is in a strange holding pattern with positive divergences.  The COT data is positive, but gold does not want to seem to move. I would at this point look to sell rallies.

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Friday, November 3, 2017

A Drop Next Week?

Yesterday formed a long legged doji on the SPX.  With the full moon on Nov 4 with Venus opp Uranus along with the 4 TD cycle running 3 (and Equality of Waves Principle vis-a-vis time), we should expect a top on Monday the 6th (an important Bradley turn).  Today has the Sun trine Neptune at 2:23 EDT, so that is a positive for the short term, along with seasonal late month, early month buying, I believe we should likely hit resistance near 2592/93 by Monday.

As I said before, momentum and money flow are showing exhaustion on this rise, there should not be much of an event to pop the bubble in the short term.  It looks as though we are seeing a double three abc x abc rise into a Y wave top with Z to come next week into my TLC low due Wed (Weird Wollie Wednesday, the Wed before monthly expiration).  My best guess is we see a drop at least into the 2520/30's zone next week and then new highs by expiration.  The first of Nov was a Sol/Sat turn and that was a top and the next is Nov 17, the Nov expiry.

I'm thinking we get a good run up into Nov 22 the way the astros are looking and also mimicking the run up from the 57 TD low July 6th, which was a 10 TD run with pauses on TD 3 (Nov 13) and 8 (Nov 20) (from the 56 TD low due Wed, 57 was stretching it).

Bottom line: Nov 8 to 22 looks bullish after some profit taking next week, which could coincide with Trump's visit to Asia and perhaps some sabre rattling re: China and N.K..

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Thursday, November 2, 2017

Topping Action Still Dead Ahead

My best guess based on cycles, waves, seasonals and astro is we make a new high on Monday next week; If I'm wrong, Friday drops hard.  I give the best odds over to the bulls right now, even though the momentum and money flow is horrible.  My best guess is SPX 2592/93 by Monday.  Next week could see a hard drop into either Wednesday or Thursday and down into the 2520's.

I said yesterday that we might be making a 4 TD low a day early on Thursday and we tagged 2565, 23 points off yesterday's high.

GDX is running counter trend and should continue higher into next week. Looking for the 23.60's

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